Could an American Be the Next Pope? Here’s Who Experts Say Might be the Top Contenders

• Following the death of Pope Francis, everybody wants to know who his successor will be, but experts say it’s hard to know for sure
• One factor that could impact things is that this upcoming conclave will have one of the most diverse groups of cardinals, many of whom Francis himself appointed
• “They don’t know each other. Most of them have not worked in Rome together,” says Dr. Bill Cavanaugh, a professor of Catholic studies at DePaul University, who adds that “makes it really hard to say who’s going to come out on top”

In the wake of Pope Francis‘ death, many names have been thrown out for his potential successor — but experts believe that while there are some top contenders, it’s difficult to predict who the cardinals will select.

For one, the list of potential eligible clergy is very long as the College of Cardinals includes 135 men that are eligible to become the 267th pope — and those seen as frontrunners aren’t always selected. For example, Francis wasn’t a name that was being discussed back in 2013, and yet he’s who came out on top.

Still, that hasn’t stopped a number of cardinals from being identified as potential pontiffs. Experts have their own ideas.

One question that keeps being asked is, could there be an American pope? The answer is theoretically yes, but in practice, it’s unlikely.

“I think that there’s no chance for an American pope just because the United States is already so powerful in the world,” Dr. Bill Cavanaugh, a professor of Catholic studies at DePaul University, tells PEOPLE.

However, if the unlikely did happen, Cavanaugh said Cardinal Joseph Tobin, the archbishop of Newark (yes, as in New Jersey) has some strengths. “He is a kind of affable guy in the mold of Pope Francis,” he says, before quickly adding, “but I don’t think it’s a serious possibility.”

Meanwhile, Anthea Butler, a professor of religious studies at the University of Pennsylvania, says that another potential American pontiff might be Cardinal Blase Cupich, the Archbishop of Chicago, who has called the threat of mass deportations in the Unites States “profoundly disturbing.”

“He has been very outspoken about immigration,” Butler says, noting that for some Catholics he wouldn’t be seen as a “theologically perfect,” but then again, “neither was Francis,” who took a similar stance on the topic.

Although other American candidates have been discussed, including Timothy Dolan, the Archbishop of New York, Butler says that many of these picks seem unlikely for a number of reasons, whether it be their age, politics or health.

“If it’s Dolan, that puts him way too close [to conservatives] because he’s been so nice to Trump that it would make conservatives happy, but it would make everybody in this country lose their s—,” Butler explains.

“Excuse my French,” Butler adds, “but a lot of Catholics would just be really upset.”

Another potential factor is that Francis appointed 108 of the cardinals who will be voting, and many share the same politics and beliefs as the late pontiff.

However, the fact that this upcoming conclave will have one of the most diverse groups of cardinals from around the world who have differing views could make electing a new pope even more complicated, according to Cavanaugh.

“One of the things that makes this particular conclave so hard to handicap, I think, is that Pope Francis has named 80% of the voting cardinals, and they are from all over the world,” Cavanaugh says. “He’s picked them from obscure locations like Mongolia and South Sudan and the Central African Republic.”

“They don’t know each other. Most of them have not worked in Rome together. And so it makes it really hard to say who’s going to come out on top,” he continues. “And I really haven’t seen any plausible explanations for why certain candidates are the front runners and others aren’t.”

Butler adds that while nothing is positive, she wouldn’t be surprised to see the conclave elect an Asian or African pope, which would be a historic moment.

“Cardinal Robert Sarah, who’s from Guinea, would be one of the names that has come up before,” she says, “But he has had so many issues in terms of things that he aligned himself with.” (He has been dubbed by some as the “Anti-Woke” Cardinal.)

“I don’t think it would be him, although he’s showing up on a lot of the lists,” she adds.

Another choice from Africa might be Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson, who “would make a lot of conservatives happy,” according to Butler, although her prediction is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines.

According to Butler, he’s a moderate and represents a part of the world where the Catholic church is actually growing. “He would be amenable to so many people,” she says.

But experts continually stress that no matter what people predict, there’s no saying what will actually happen.

“I have no idea. Nobody does. I think that’s the main takeaway,” Cavanaugh tells PEOPLE.